Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -500 USF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -11.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.2 (-11.2) | 156.5 (-9.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -11.4 (-12.4) | 155.3 (-8.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -10.5 (-11.5) | 154.0 (-7.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -11.2 (-12.2) | 154.4 (-7.4) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MEM 99 – 81 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#50) | 2.1 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#8) | 0.26 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#10) | 0.42 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#8) | 0.498 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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