Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | MEM +260 USF -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +7 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -5.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -5.9 (-1.1) | 157.8 (+27.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -2.6 (-4.4) | 158.9 (+26.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -6.1 (-0.9) | 155.0 (+30.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -5.8 (-1.2) | 156.3 (+28.7) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MEM 99 – 81 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#121) | 11.4 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#154) | 1.60 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#141) | 2.25 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#205) | 0.589 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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