Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | USF +240 MEM -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -11.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -9.5 (-5.5) | 147.9 (-2.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -8.4 (-6.6) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -10.2 (-4.8) | 149.8 (-4.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -9.8 (-5.2) | 151.7 (-6.7) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MEM 99 – 81 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#206) | 11.8 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#211) | 3.26 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#215) | 3.78 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#233) | 0.660 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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