Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | USF -500 MEM +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USF -7.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.9 (+13.1) | 155.8 (-2.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.2 (+15.8) | 158.3 (-5.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -8.1 (+12.9) | 153.6 (-0.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -7.7 (+13.3) | 154.8 (-1.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MEM 99 – 81 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#56) | 5.3 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#72) | 0.46 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#62) | 0.76 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#47) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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