Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -1200 USF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -16.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -13.3 (+2.7) | 153.3 (-1.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -14.6 (+1.4) | 150.4 (+1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -15.1 (+0.9) | 152.7 (-0.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -14.6 (+1.4) | 152.8 (-0.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
| Feb 9, 2023 | MEM 99 – 81 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 11-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#52) | -2.1 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#12) | -0.53 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#23) | -0.61 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#6) | 0.469 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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