Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | USF +188 MEM -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +18 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -4.6 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -4.4 (-13.6) | 156.3 (+23.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -5.1 (-12.9) | 153.1 (+26.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.5 (-13.5) | 154.5 (+25.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.7 (-13.3) | 158.0 (+22.0) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | 9.8 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#228) | 1.85 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#182) | 2.56 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#218) | 0.590 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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