Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +130 UCR -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +24 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -1.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -0.6 (+24.6) | 134.6 (+1.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -0.3 (+23.7) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -0.1 (+24.1) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -0.2 (+23.8) | 138.1 (-2.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#289) | -4.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#309) | -0.97 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#308) | -1.05 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#329) | 0.447 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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