Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -175 UNCA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -6.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -4.2 (-9.2) | 150.7 (+8.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.6 (-9.6) | 147.9 (+11.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.6 (-9.6) | 149.4 (+9.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.9 (-9.9) | 150.9 (+8.1) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | -0.9 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#115) | 0.54 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#119) | 0.52 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#119) | 0.537 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 37.2% | 33.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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