Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UALB +150 UML -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +21 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -0.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -1.8 (-19.2) | 151.4 (+21.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -0.6 (-21.6) | 149.1 (+23.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -0.5 (-21.5) | 150.1 (+22.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -0.4 (-20.6) | 150.2 (+22.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UML 81 – 76 UALB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UML 89 – 79 UALB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UML 83 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UALB 90 – 88 UML |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UML 73 – 69 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 7-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#199) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#178) | 0.84 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#201) | 1.04 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#173) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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