Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -500 MONM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -9.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -8.2 (-4.2) | 137.0 (+15.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -7.9 (-3.9) | 133.3 (+18.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -7.6 (-3.6) | 133.8 (+18.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -6.6 (-2.6) | 135.0 (+17.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | MONM 65 – 57 DREX |
| Feb 13, 2026 | MONM 93 – 73 DREX |
| Jan 16, 2026 | DREX 73 – 51 MONM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DREX 71 – 61 MONM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MONM 104 – 97 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#103) | -0.7 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#121) | 0.67 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#131) | 0.79 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#126) | 0.529 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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