Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Horizon League · Nutter Center · January 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread WRST -10.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money WRST -600 / GB +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total WRST win
Actual GB +7 169 Lost
Massey WRST -7.1 (-14.1)
Massey Totals 154.6 (+14.4)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 74%
Efficiency Plus ML WRST -5.8 (-12.8) 147.9 (+21.1) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML WRST -3.8 (-10.8) 147.4 (+21.6) 68%
Baseline ML WRST -4.2 (-11.2) 149.1 (+19.9) 60%
Baseline Plus ML WRST -4.4 (-11.4) 145.3 (+23.7) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2026 WRST 8375 GB
Dec 7, 2025 WRST 8658 GB
Feb 16, 2025 GB 7968 WRST
Jan 3, 2025 WRST 7451 GB
Dec 29, 2023 GB 8877 WRST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WRST GB
Overall 18-14 18-14
Conference 13-7 13-7
Home 9-7 10-5
Away 7-6 8-8
Neutral 2-1 0-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 86.2 68.6
Avg Pts Against 82.8 70.2
Massey 1.5 (#145) -1.8 (#202)
Bradley-Terry -0.14 (#189) -0.18 (#195)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.06 (#180) -0.34 (#210)
RPI 0.502 (#170) 0.495 (#184)
Shooting & Four Factors WRST GB
FG% 52.9% 45.1%
3PT% 38.6% 35.1%
REB / G 34.0 32.9
OREB / G 9.1 8.4
AST / TO 1.30 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.2% 53.4%
TOV% 16.7% 21.0%
ORB% 29.0% 27.8%
FT Rate 22.2% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 14.0%
DRB% 72.1% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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