I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
Horizon League · Nutter Center · January 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread WRST -10.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money WRST -600 / GB +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total WRST win
Actual GB +7 169 Lost
Massey WRST -7.1 (-14.1) — —
Massey Totals — 154.6 (+14.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 68% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 74% ✗
Baseline Plus ML WRST -4.4 (-11.4) 145.3 (+23.7) 63% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WRST -5.8 (-12.8) 147.9 (+21.1) 67% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML WRST -3.8 (-10.8) 147.4 (+21.6) 68% ✗
Baseline ML WRST -4.2 (-11.2) 149.1 (+19.9) 60% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2026 WRST 83 – 75 GB
Dec 7, 2025 WRST 86 – 58 GB
Feb 16, 2025 GB 79 – 68 WRST
Jan 3, 2025 WRST 74 – 51 GB
Dec 29, 2023 GB 88 – 77 WRST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WRST GB
Overall 18-14 18-14
Conference 13-7 13-7
Home 9-7 10-5
Away 7-6 8-8
Neutral 2-1 0-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 86.2 68.6
Avg Pts Against 82.8 70.2
Massey 1.5 (#145) -1.8 (#202)
Bradley-Terry -0.14 (#189) -0.18 (#195)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.06 (#180) -0.34 (#210)
RPI 0.502 (#170) 0.495 (#184)
Shooting & Four Factors WRST GB
FG% 52.9% 45.1%
3PT% 38.6% 35.1%
REB / G 34.0 32.9
OREB / G 9.1 8.4
AST / TO 1.30 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.2% 53.4%
TOV% 16.7% 21.0%
ORB% 29.0% 27.8%
FT Rate 22.2% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 14.0%
DRB% 72.1% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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