Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -138 WASH +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | WASH -4.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -2.6 (+0.6) | 158.1 (-6.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -2.5 (+0.5) | 154.9 (-2.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -3.3 (+1.3) | 155.6 (-3.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -3.1 (+1.1) | 157.8 (-5.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | CAL 82 – 80 WASH |
| Feb 24, 2023 | WASH 65 – 56 CAL |
| Jan 14, 2023 | WASH 81 – 78 CAL |
| Feb 4, 2022 | WASH 84 – 63 CAL |
| Jan 13, 2022 | WASH 64 – 55 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 80.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#143) | 9.5 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#213) | 1.20 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#167) | 1.60 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#199) | 0.568 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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