Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -130 WASH +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +21 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -5.5 (-26.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -3.7 (-24.7) | 137.2 (+9.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.7 (-23.7) | 135.5 (+11.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -2.7 (-23.7) | 134.5 (+12.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -3.0 (-24.0) | 137.3 (+9.7) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | CAL 82 – 80 WASH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | WASH 77 – 75 CAL |
| Feb 24, 2023 | WASH 65 – 56 CAL |
| Jan 14, 2023 | WASH 81 – 78 CAL |
| Jan 13, 2022 | WASH 64 – 55 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#162) | 0.92 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#139) | 0.88 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#206) | 0.542 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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