Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -163 ACU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -7.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -6.0 (+2.0) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.1 (+2.9) | 138.5 (+11.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.4 (+2.6) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -6.0 (+2.0) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#186) | -4.3 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#131) | -0.82 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#138) | -0.83 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#104) | 0.463 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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