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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–45 on winners spread MAE 8.9 129 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Rice @ Charlotte	+5.9	142.9	73%	70–80	✓
Fairfield @ Iona	+3.9	144.6	70%	71–70	✗
Providence @ Villanova	+10.2	158.5	84%	73–87	✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac	+8.6	152.0	82%	98–91	✗
Dartmouth @ Yale	+16.5	152.0	88%	68–83	✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay	+7.4	153.5	82%	89–82	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	-3.8	157.0	48%	77–90	✗
Marist @ Canisius	-11.3	124.5	15%	88–86	✓
Rider @ Manhattan	+4.5	144.7	72%	90–95	✓
Harvard @ Brown	-2.1	134.2	41%	69–59	✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia	+5.0	149.7	70%	67–72	✓
Michigan @ Michigan State	-0.5	146.7	48%	83–71	✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis	+12.6	149.9	87%	71–102	✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee	-1.2	147.2	49%	76–69	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's	+7.1	133.5	77%	58–66	✓
Loyola Chicago @ VCU	+16.1	147.4	90%	75–89	✓
Boise State @ Grand Canyon	+0.4	140.1	55%	69–86	✓
UNLV @ Nevada	+10.6	148.7	85%	76–89	✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech	-12.1	148.6	15%	72–58	✓
Cincinnati @ Houston	+13.5	134.2	86%	54–76	✓
Texas Tech @ UCF	-2.4	153.8	31%	80–88	✗
Pittsburgh @ Clemson	+11.8	133.6	86%	52–63	✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop	+8.3	147.2	81%	71–84	✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall	+7.5	140.1	78%	64–69	✓
Georgetown @ Butler	+7.8	151.6	75%	77–64	✗
NC State @ Wake Forest	-2.2	152.8	43%	96–78	✓
Ball State @ Toledo	+9.9	140.7	82%	55–73	✓
Campbell @ William & Mary	+7.6	158.9	81%	104–96	✗
Stony Brook @ Elon	+5.3	148.8	76%	72–68	✗
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel	-1.3	146.8	41%	66–71	✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State	-0.3	143.5	47%	76–72	✓
Holy Cross @ Army	+1.3	142.2	58%	68–69	✓
San Diego State @ Utah State	+7.4	145.0	77%	66–71	✓
DePaul @ Xavier	+4.6	148.8	73%	66–68	✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+0.2	146.2	62%	71–83	✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne	+5.0	138.1	73%	65–54	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner	+2.9	133.3	54%	72–75	✓
LSU @ South Carolina	-2.3	146.6	39%	92–87	✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia	+7.2	171.3	76%	92–77	✗
Virginia @ Boston College	-12.6	141.6	20%	73–66	✓
Arizona @ Arizona State	-11.5	157.2	16%	87–74	✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech	-9.1	150.1	24%	91–75	✓
SMU @ Louisville	+7.7	158.1	79%	74–88	✓
Colgate @ Lehigh	-2.9	147.4	41%	76–77	✗
Lafayette @ American University	+7.7	140.4	79%	67–65	✗
Fordham @ George Washington	+12.0	141.6	87%	79–65	✗
Ohio State @ Wisconsin	+3.9	155.1	67%	82–92	✓
Boston University @ Bucknell	+0.6	141.6	49%	97–103	✓
Radford @ Presbyterian	+2.5	148.3	56%	93–84	✗
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State	-4.0	129.2	27%	74–78	✗
Ohio @ Buffalo	+4.6	151.3	72%	95–83	✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut	-0.7	139.9	45%	80–59	✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell	+2.9	129.7	56%	77–91	✓
Charleston @ Northeastern	-1.5	152.2	45%	89–84	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel	+6.1	135.4	78%	60–61	✓
Hampton @ Towson	+5.5	130.7	70%	50–82	✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth	-2.7	143.1	46%	73–57	✓
VMI @ Mercer	+16.0	151.4	90%	81–95	✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State	+1.3	141.3	57%	64–81	✓
Texas @ Oklahoma	+0.1	153.8	50%	79–69	✗
Queens University @ Bellarmine	-2.8	162.4	44%	75–78	✗
North Alabama @ Stetson	+1.9	144.4	59%	68–66	✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida	-10.1	157.3	17%	100–94	✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle	-1.4	137.5	40%	67–58	✓
High Point @ Longwood	-9.2	152.5	22%	71–59	✓
Fresno State @ Air Force	-10.2	132.7	16%	79–62	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State	+11.8	146.6	87%	72–95	✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State	+3.2	159.4	68%	70–61	✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss	-0.2	144.3	54%	65–73	✗
Idaho State @ Weber State	+2.2	147.6	63%	79–81	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville	+0.8	144.0	52%	68–49	✗
California Baptist @ UT Arlington	-0.1	129.4	53%	87–77	✓
Jacksonville State @ Missouri State	+2.9	136.0	63%	67–74	✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH)	+16.1	151.0	89%	61–85	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State	+0.3	153.4	47%	69–54	✗
Mississippi State @ Missouri	+5.6	148.1	72%	79–84	✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State	-0.6	149.2	53%	79–78	✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa	+11.5	128.4	86%	55–71	✓
Norfolk State @ Howard	+3.8	139.0	68%	60–88	✓
Baylor @ West Virginia	+2.7	137.9	66%	63–53	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State	-8.7	140.5	18%	78–70	✓
Grambling @ Jackson State	-4.4	142.1	32%	69–66	✓
California @ Miami	+5.7	144.5	76%	86–85	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Navy	+10.6	139.8	84%	71–87	✓
Omaha @ Denver	+0.8	152.1	53%	84–82	✗
New Hampshire @ Bryant	-1.2	131.4	47%	84–92	✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State	-7.8	142.5	24%	89–82	✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana	-3.8	138.8	39%	60–69	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado	+7.9	156.5	79%	71–74	✓
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian	+5.7	142.0	73%	79–76	✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee	+4.1	140.5	69%	65–60	✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech	-0.7	136.3	41%	77–87	✗
BYU @ Kansas	+3.8	153.1	64%	82–90	✓
Davidson @ Richmond	+2.8	139.0	61%	79–54	✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State	-3.2	143.3	36%	89–80	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.2	131.1	81%	71–73	✓
NJIT @ Vermont	+10.7	138.6	86%	79–77	✗
App State @ Troy	+8.4	143.0	80%	66–44	✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas	+5.7	155.2	74%	81–90	✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia	-6.5	147.4	27%	81–78	✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois	-9.2	129.8	16%	84–44	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois	-2.9	133.1	39%	77–59	✓
Southern @ Alcorn State	-5.3	146.3	27%	73–78	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State	-3.6	124.8	36%	57–65	✗
Indiana @ UCLA	+2.9	141.0	69%	98–97	✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield	-4.9	150.9	40%	80–72	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Incarnate Word	+0.1	134.6	50%	106–93	✗
Montana State @ Portland State	+2.1	138.2	65%	54–63	✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State	+3.7	150.4	73%	65–59	✗
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State	+1.9	152.4	65%	53–76	✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M	+2.5	156.9	58%	78–85	✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M	+3.1	136.5	66%	65–72	✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt	+13.9	152.9	86%	68–71	✓
Bradley @ Drake	+2.9	147.2	64%	87–73	✗
Portland @ Washington State	+8.4	146.2	81%	74–104	✓
Oregon State @ San Diego	+1.5	148.5	65%	78–76	✗
Notre Dame @ Syracuse	+2.3	141.2	66%	72–86	✓
Dartmouth @ Brown	-0.2	145.0	49%	77–70	✓
Princeton @ Columbia	+6.5	140.1	77%	80–68	✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota	-7.4	153.0	22%	89–84	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts	+5.2	144.0	70%	67–70	✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell	+5.0	161.8	71%	91–81	✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin	+11.2	135.4	84%	58–85	✓
Northwestern State @ New Orleans	+4.3	148.5	69%	64–75	✓
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M	-1.6	142.7	43%	72–68	✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah	-0.9	160.0	45%	81–69	✓
Stanford @ Florida State	+1.6	150.0	56%	80–88	✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure	-2.1	137.9	41%	77–73	✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas	+6.3	159.1	72%	85–77	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.