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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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82–35 on winners spread MAE 9.2 117 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Yale @ Pennsylvania	-2.8	141.6	39%	64–66	✗
Harvard @ Columbia	-9.1	142.6	18%	83–65	✓
Brown @ Princeton	+6.0	142.5	78%	67–78	✓
Canisius @ Rider	+7.6	141.4	73%	81–78	✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's	-0.6	129.2	42%	66–70	✗
Fairfield @ Marist	-0.5	130.1	47%	70–61	✓
Manhattan @ Iona	+16.0	142.4	88%	60–71	✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago	-7.0	130.6	26%	65–49	✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State	+2.5	148.9	61%	68–85	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne	-0.0	134.5	46%	63–50	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland	-0.3	158.6	57%	96–74	✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena	+1.1	139.2	58%	66–63	✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah	+6.7	151.6	79%	71–81	✓
Air Force @ Wyoming	+4.3	134.1	70%	75–69	✗
New Mexico @ San José State	-1.5	141.6	48%	96–68	✓
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon	+7.1	144.9	75%	84–94	✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia	+12.4	125.7	88%	55–57	✓
Illinois @ Indiana	+3.6	141.8	69%	68–71	✓
Seton Hall @ UConn	+12.3	133.3	87%	55–64	✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia	+6.5	144.4	71%	78–72	✗
Boston College @ Florida State	+0.9	142.6	50%	75–69	✗
Rutgers @ Wisconsin	-0.8	123.9	45%	58–57	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga	+0.8	141.8	49%	93–76	✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern	+3.5	133.3	70%	57–69	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson	+5.6	143.8	70%	75–76	✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky	-2.2	130.1	53%	54–66	✗
Bucknell @ Boston University	+3.6	133.2	74%	61–77	✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire	-0.8	136.6	51%	66–75	✗
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell	+10.8	141.9	86%	70–84	✓
South Carolina @ LSU	+9.3	134.3	78%	82–73	✗
Samford @ VMI	-11.0	144.0	17%	96–61	✓
Wofford @ The Citadel	-3.6	143.9	36%	72–68	✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut	-0.6	131.5	49%	90–94	✗
Saint Francis @ Long Island University	-5.2	146.5	24%	93–82	✓
Georgia Southern @ Southern Miss	+8.1	137.5	82%	62–73	✓
Oklahoma @ Texas	+10.7	142.1	86%	83–85	✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State	+3.4	134.0	69%	55–61	✓
Wake Forest @ Miami	+7.2	156.7	78%	87–96	✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU	+5.2	138.6	76%	75–100	✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate	+16.7	147.0	88%	73–96	✓
Lehigh @ American University	+3.2	131.7	57%	62–59	✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State	+11.3	144.6	87%	64–80	✓
UAlbany @ Maine	+7.1	139.8	76%	72–74	✓
Florida @ Arkansas	+6.9	141.9	79%	65–84	✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island	+0.4	140.4	53%	69–45	✗
Presbyterian @ Campbell	+8.0	129.2	77%	57–74	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	+2.9	139.4	64%	71–68	✗
Ohio @ Central Michigan	-6.7	143.0	26%	76–59	✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart	+1.4	132.0	45%	67–55	✗
Texas State @ Coastal Carolina	-0.2	136.9	48%	78–75	✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State	+20.2	146.9	90%	65–95	✓
Elon @ Monmouth	+1.2	136.5	49%	75–68	✗
Queens University @ Kennesaw State	+4.6	151.2	74%	83–76	✗
Fordham @ VCU	+7.4	136.3	77%	61–80	✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan	-6.0	144.7	32%	68–78	✗
Charlotte @ Louisiana Tech	+1.4	128.1	55%	74–67	✗
UT Arlington @ Stephen F. Austin	+9.7	133.7	81%	75–70	✗
Radford @ Longwood	+4.0	128.7	72%	63–73	✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville	+2.7	135.4	67%	63–75	✓
Georgia State @ Arkansas State	+0.2	128.9	46%	70–75	✓
South Dakota @ Denver	+2.2	143.6	56%	68–86	✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State	+8.4	130.7	82%	58–71	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	-0.1	146.3	54%	72–50	✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss	-3.7	129.0	33%	69–61	✓
Baylor @ Kansas	+3.7	149.7	69%	71–87	✓
DePaul @ Xavier	+13.3	158.2	87%	68–82	✓
Howard @ Coppin State	-6.6	153.4	24%	80–70	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+8.4	148.0	84%	62–78	✓
Southern @ Grambling	+2.1	135.0	56%	64–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State	-0.3	142.5	43%	75–60	✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	-8.1	135.0	19%	66–58	✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State	+6.0	127.7	72%	69–66	✗
Evansville @ Murray State	+13.6	143.0	88%	58–74	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy	+10.8	131.1	86%	53–65	✓
UAB @ UTSA	-12.2	157.3	14%	83–78	✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State	+11.3	143.2	86%	50–72	✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls	+10.1	144.6	85%	74–84	✓
La Salle @ George Mason	+5.8	138.7	68%	66–70	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point	+1.0	146.5	56%	66–81	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner	+6.2	131.4	63%	66–48	✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama	+11.0	135.1	85%	45–81	✓
Old Dominion @ App State	+1.1	131.3	53%	74–63	✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech	+1.3	151.4	58%	100–91	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware	-0.5	135.9	47%	66–75	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Towson	+13.8	144.4	88%	75–87	✓
Drexel @ Hampton	-9.1	135.6	26%	72–75	✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine	+7.2	146.0	79%	76–78	✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay	-1.9	145.8	49%	71–73	✗
Villanova @ Providence	+8.0	140.4	79%	72–85	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State	+12.9	151.8	85%	68–65	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese	-6.1	142.7	29%	77–54	✓
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois	+5.0	146.2	70%	66–65	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	+0.7	147.2	55%	85–100	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock	+3.5	150.0	69%	77–81	✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	+2.9	144.6	65%	72–79	✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State	+0.8	128.6	53%	60–57	✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green	-8.4	159.5	20%	91–86	✓
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State	+1.4	155.7	62%	80–85	✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	+7.1	152.6	80%	77–89	✓
SE Louisiana @ East Texas A&M	+1.2	146.1	47%	78–76	✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern	-1.2	144.8	46%	75–67	✓
Georgia @ Alabama	+19.2	155.8	90%	59–108	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern	+9.4	140.2	84%	62–80	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M	+5.2	145.0	74%	56–90	✓
Lafayette @ Army	+2.0	130.8	68%	43–53	✓
Utah @ Arizona State	+2.8	137.1	67%	59–67	✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee	+9.6	143.4	82%	58–69	✓
Duke @ Syracuse	-2.6	136.2	35%	77–55	✓
Yale @ Princeton	-1.3	139.8	46%	93–83	✓
Harvard @ Cornell	+4.9	148.8	71%	73–56	✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania	+3.4	144.8	67%	69–90	✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri	-0.5	146.6	52%	69–60	✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State	-10.3	133.8	20%	79–55	✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.6	146.6	67%	88–84	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M	+5.1	137.2	75%	71–82	✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State	+5.0	129.1	64%	60–54	✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook	-11.8	134.4	15%	68–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.