Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -138 SDAK +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +18 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -5.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.6 (+14.4) | 147.8 (+6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -2.2 (+15.8) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -3.8 (+14.2) | 147.0 (+7.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.6 (+14.4) | 147.3 (+6.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#296) | -8.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#276) | -0.90 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#281) | -1.29 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#314) | 0.453 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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