Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -150 FDU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +18 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -5.1 (-23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -2.5 (-20.5) | 139.5 (-25.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -6.2 (-24.2) | 131.4 (-17.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -3.1 (-21.1) | 141.1 (-27.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -3.2 (-21.2) | 141.9 (-27.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WAG 75 – 72 FDU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | FDU 68 – 61 WAG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FDU 69 – 58 WAG |
| Jan 5, 2025 | FDU 71 – 59 WAG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FDU 57 – 54 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#301) | -9.2 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#291) | -1.43 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#292) | -1.80 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#264) | 0.438 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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