Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -800 UTA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -11.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -8.9 (-13.9) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -9.7 (-14.7) | 133.7 (+11.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.0 (-14.0) | 137.9 (+7.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -8.8 (-13.8) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | UTA 66 – 61 SFA |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UTA 109 – 78 SFA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTA 71 – 63 SFA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SFA 92 – 73 UTA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SFA 66 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | -4.5 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#120) | -0.78 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#129) | -0.91 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#105) | 0.459 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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