Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UTA +150 SFA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.7 (-3.3) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -0.8 (-4.8) | 140.2 (-12.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.3 (-4.3) | 139.6 (-11.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.3 (-3.7) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | UTA 66 – 61 SFA |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UTA 109 – 78 SFA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTA 71 – 63 SFA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SFA 92 – 73 UTA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UTA 75 – 70 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#267) | -0.9 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#294) | -0.10 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#306) | -0.42 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#249) | 0.463 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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