Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -175 SFA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +31 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -1.6 (+29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+41.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -2.6 (+28.4) | 143.0 (+44.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.0 (+29.0) | 144.9 (+42.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.8 (+28.2) | 142.7 (+44.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.9 (+29.1) | 142.4 (+44.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | UTA 66 – 61 SFA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTA 71 – 63 SFA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SFA 92 – 73 UTA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UTA 75 – 70 SFA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SFA 66 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#134) | 0.6 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#135) | 0.06 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#122) | 0.33 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#119) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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