Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -188 SFA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -2.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -0.9 (+7.1) | 147.7 (-13.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.5 (+7.5) | 147.2 (-13.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.5 (+6.5) | 145.3 (-11.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.8 (+7.2) | 145.8 (-11.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | UTA 66 – 61 SFA |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UTA 109 – 78 SFA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SFA 92 – 73 UTA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UTA 75 – 70 SFA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SFA 66 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#163) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#182) | 0.19 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#165) | 0.51 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#181) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 36.9% |
Game Analysis
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