Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -300 UTA +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -7.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.3 (+12.7) | 144.7 (+20.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -6.4 (+12.6) | 143.5 (+21.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.7 (+12.3) | 143.9 (+21.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.7 (+12.3) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | UTA 66 – 61 SFA |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UTA 109 – 78 SFA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTA 71 – 63 SFA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UTA 75 – 70 SFA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SFA 66 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#141) | -1.1 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#165) | -0.44 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#136) | -0.56 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#186) | 0.498 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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