Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -120 SFA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -1.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.3 (+6.3) | 136.5 (-9.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.3 (+5.3) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -0.4 (+4.6) | 135.7 (-8.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.1 (+5.1) | 137.0 (-10.0) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2024 | UTA 109 – 78 SFA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTA 71 – 63 SFA |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SFA 92 – 73 UTA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UTA 75 – 70 SFA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | SFA 66 – 62 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 20-2 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#183) | 6.4 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#163) | 1.62 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#186) | 3.07 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#213) | 0.591 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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