Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -275 ACU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -8.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -7.1 (+2.9) | 144.9 (+33.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -6.1 (+3.9) | 145.7 (+32.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.9 (+4.1) | 147.0 (+31.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.4 (+4.6) | 146.0 (+32.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ACU 82 – 81 GCU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | GCU 88 – 58 ACU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ACU 79 – 73 GCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | GCU 74 – 64 ACU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | GCU 75 – 73 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#121) | -1.6 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#129) | -0.20 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#117) | -0.19 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#134) | 0.488 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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