Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ACU +138 GCU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -5.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.3 (+3.3) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.3 (+3.3) | 143.9 (+4.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.2 (+3.2) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.2 (+3.2) | 142.6 (+5.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ACU 82 – 81 GCU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | GCU 88 – 58 ACU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ACU 79 – 73 GCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | GCU 74 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GCU 94 – 84 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#247) | 4.9 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#248) | 0.68 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#253) | 0.90 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#267) | 0.534 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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