Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ACU +260 GCU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -6.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.3 (+6.3) | 139.8 (+23.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.1 (+6.1) | 139.6 (+23.4) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.5 (+6.5) | 141.5 (+21.5) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.4 (+6.4) | 142.8 (+20.2) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2025 | GCU 88 – 58 ACU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ACU 79 – 73 GCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | GCU 74 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GCU 94 – 84 ACU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | GCU 75 – 73 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#240) | 5.2 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#230) | 1.14 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#206) | 1.10 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#232) | 0.548 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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