Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1400 ACU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +30 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -12.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -13.7 (+16.3) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -12.5 (+17.5) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.5 (+18.5) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -11.4 (+18.6) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ACU 82 – 81 GCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ACU 79 – 73 GCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | GCU 74 – 64 ACU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GCU 94 – 84 ACU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | GCU 75 – 73 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#105) | -4.8 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#105) | -0.77 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#115) | -0.59 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#115) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 38.5% |
Game Analysis
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