Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -1600 ACU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -17.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -16.1 (-6.1) | 150.8 (-12.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -15.1 (-5.1) | 149.6 (-11.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -15.8 (-5.8) | 149.8 (-11.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -16.6 (-6.6) | 152.0 (-14.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ACU 82 – 81 GCU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | GCU 88 – 58 ACU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ACU 79 – 73 GCU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | GCU 94 – 84 ACU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | GCU 75 – 73 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#56) | -4.3 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#7) | -0.83 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#11) | -0.86 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#33) | 0.450 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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