But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Western Athletic Conference · Moody Coliseum (Abilene) · February 24, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -9.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money ACU +333 / GCU -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total ACU win
Actual ACU +6 152 Won
Massey GCU -10.4 (+16.4)
Massey Totals 147.7 (+4.3)
Bradley-Terry 9%
Weighted B-T 6%
Baseline ML GCU -8.6 (+14.6) 145.1 (+6.9) 22%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -8.8 (+14.8) 145.7 (+6.3) 24%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -9.2 (+15.2) 143.8 (+8.2) 24%
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -9.5 (+15.5) 144.2 (+7.8) 19%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 8, 2025 ACU 8281 GCU
Jan 17, 2025 GCU 8858 ACU
Jan 12, 2024 GCU 7464 ACU
Feb 18, 2023 GCU 9484 ACU
Jan 27, 2023 GCU 7573 ACU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ACU GCU
Overall 16-18 30-5
Conference 10-10 17-3
Home 8-6 16-0
Away 5-10 8-3
Neutral 3-2 5-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.7 77.8
Avg Pts Against 73.7 66.8
Massey -4.6 (#255) 9.2 (#63)
Bradley-Terry -0.57 (#235) 2.40 (#18)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#232) 2.82 (#23)
RPI 0.464 (#251) 0.606 (#24)
Shooting & Four Factors ACU GCU
FG% 41.8% 45.8%
3PT% 33.3% 34.7%
REB / G 32.1 38.8
OREB / G 9.4 12.1
AST / TO 0.94 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.2% 52.0%
TOV% 17.3% 18.3%
ORB% 25.0% 35.4%
FT Rate 28.3% 33.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.1% 46.5%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 19.3%
DRB% 68.6% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 24.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.