Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -800 MORG +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +22 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -11.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -11.1 (+10.9) | 145.5 (-23.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -11.3 (+10.7) | 143.2 (-21.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -11.5 (+10.5) | 146.1 (-24.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -10.3 (+11.7) | 146.9 (-24.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#175) | -7.7 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#118) | -0.93 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#133) | -1.44 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#112) | 0.481 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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