Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +136 NORF -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +6 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -3.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.0 (+9.0) | 148.5 (+25.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -3.4 (+9.4) | 145.0 (+29.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.0 (+9.0) | 146.7 (+27.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -2.6 (+8.6) | 148.8 (+25.2) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
| Feb 27, 2024 | NORF 85 – 82 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -16.3 (#353) | -9.7 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#336) | -1.65 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#348) | -2.22 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#336) | 0.447 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.0% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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