Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -410 MORG +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -12.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -10.1 (-11.1) | 146.5 (+10.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -10.3 (-11.3) | 144.5 (+12.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -11.1 (-12.1) | 144.8 (+12.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -10.9 (-11.9) | 146.4 (+10.6) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
| Feb 27, 2024 | NORF 85 – 82 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#294) | -18.0 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#316) | -2.59 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#330) | -3.84 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#329) | 0.374 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 41.0% |
Game Analysis
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