Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +155 NORF -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -5.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -5.7 (+2.7) | 143.1 (+23.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -5.2 (+2.2) | 140.0 (+27.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.3 (+2.3) | 140.9 (+26.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -4.8 (+1.8) | 142.1 (+24.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -13.6 (#345) | -4.3 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#328) | -0.18 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#326) | -0.40 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#315) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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