Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -900 MORG +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -11.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-46.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -9.7 (-6.7) | 153.6 (-40.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.1 (-6.1) | 152.6 (-39.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -9.3 (-6.3) | 152.6 (-39.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -9.7 (-6.7) | 152.5 (-39.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
| Feb 27, 2024 | NORF 85 – 82 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#169) | -12.1 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#160) | -1.88 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | -2.47 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#91) | 0.413 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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