Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +380 NORF -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -12.2 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -12.4 (+16.4) | 150.3 (+1.7) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.7 (+13.7) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -11.9 (+15.9) | 153.6 (-1.6) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -13.0 (+17.0) | 152.9 (-0.9) | 19% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Feb 27, 2024 | NORF 85 – 82 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#351) | 1.8 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#348) | 0.59 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#345) | 0.42 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.340 (#361) | 0.524 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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