Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -900 MORG +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -15.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -12.8 (-3.8) | 155.1 (-26.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -12.3 (-3.3) | 155.0 (-26.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -12.5 (-3.5) | 153.6 (-24.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -12.9 (-3.9) | 155.4 (-26.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
| Feb 27, 2024 | NORF 85 – 82 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#160) | -12.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#140) | -2.06 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#157) | -2.56 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.388 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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