Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GRAM -138 SOU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -2.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -3.3 (+1.7) | 137.3 (-4.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -2.1 (+2.9) | 135.0 (-2.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -3.2 (+1.8) | 135.0 (-2.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -3.4 (+1.6) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-1 | 9-2 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#208) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#169) | -0.90 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | -1.26 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#187) | 0.468 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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