Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -250 FAMU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +6 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -7.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -5.2 (-11.2) | 130.3 (-16.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -5.0 (-11.0) | 129.1 (-15.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -5.0 (-11.0) | 129.9 (-15.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -5.3 (-11.3) | 131.4 (-17.4) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FAMU 76 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ALST 79 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALST 60 – 59 FAMU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALST 67 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FAMU 73 – 65 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Away | 2-18 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 58.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -11.8 (#342) | -15.2 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#328) | -2.92 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#333) | -3.58 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#320) | 0.368 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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