Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Southwestern Athletic Conference · Al Lawson Center · February 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALST -1.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money FAMU +105 / ALST -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAMU win
Actual ALST +1 133 Lost
Massey ALST -1.3 (+0.3)
Massey Totals 151.3 (-18.3)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 63%
Efficiency Plus ML FAMU -0.2 (-1.2) 142.7 (-9.7) 46%
Baseline Tuned ML FAMU -0.4 (-1.4) 143.5 (-10.5) 54%
Baseline ML FAMU -0.2 (-1.2) 143.6 (-10.6) 52%
Baseline Plus ML ALST -0.4 (-0.6) 145.1 (-12.1) 52%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 FAMU 7663 ALST
Feb 3, 2026 ALST 7966 FAMU
Feb 22, 2025 ALST 6059 FAMU
Feb 24, 2024 FAMU 7365 ALST
Feb 6, 2024 ALST 6253 FAMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAMU ALST
Overall 14-17 20-16
Conference 10-8 12-6
Home 9-3 8-3
Away 4-13 6-10
Neutral 1-1 6-3
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 68.8 71.9
Avg Pts Against 76.1 72.7
Massey -12.4 (#343) -7.9 (#291)
Bradley-Terry -1.35 (#288) -1.57 (#311)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.04 (#311) -1.92 (#305)
RPI 0.441 (#281) 0.417 (#322)
Shooting & Four Factors FAMU ALST
FG% 41.3% 40.2%
3PT% 34.2% 32.8%
REB / G 33.2 34.9
OREB / G 9.8 11.2
AST / TO 0.75 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.1% 47.3%
TOV% 22.8% 13.7%
ORB% 28.2% 27.7%
FT Rate 24.7% 21.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.5% 52.8%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 17.8%
DRB% 66.3% 68.1%
Opp FT Rate 28.7% 30.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.