Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FAMU +105 ALST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -1.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.4 (-0.6) | 145.1 (-12.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAMU -0.2 (-1.2) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAMU -0.4 (-1.4) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAMU -0.2 (-1.2) | 143.6 (-10.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FAMU 76 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ALST 79 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALST 60 – 59 FAMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FAMU 73 – 65 ALST |
| Feb 6, 2024 | ALST 62 – 53 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#343) | -7.9 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#288) | -1.57 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#311) | -1.92 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#281) | 0.417 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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