Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | FAMU +180 ALST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -3.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -3.4 (+11.4) | 132.6 (+5.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -3.0 (+11.0) | 131.7 (+6.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.1 (+11.1) | 131.9 (+6.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -3.2 (+11.2) | 136.1 (+1.9) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FAMU 76 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ALST 79 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALST 60 – 59 FAMU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALST 67 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 6, 2024 | ALST 62 – 53 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#349) | -8.1 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#352) | -1.14 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#353) | -1.54 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#334) | 0.464 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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