Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -155 FAMU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -3.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.0 (+12.0) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.0 (+11.0) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.9 (+12.1) | 138.6 (+6.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.2 (+11.8) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FAMU 76 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALST 60 – 59 FAMU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALST 67 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FAMU 73 – 65 ALST |
| Feb 6, 2024 | ALST 62 – 53 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#333) | -12.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#325) | -1.31 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#325) | -1.56 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#328) | 0.431 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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