Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -450 FAMU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +9 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -10.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -8.9 (+0.1) | 135.8 (-20.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -9.4 (-0.4) | 135.5 (-20.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -8.4 (+0.6) | 136.4 (-21.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -9.1 (-0.1) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FAMU 76 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ALST 79 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALST 60 – 59 FAMU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALST 67 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FAMU 73 – 65 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 6-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#283) | -13.8 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#243) | -2.17 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#258) | -3.07 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#222) | 0.417 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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