Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -300 FAMU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +1 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -5.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -3.9 (-2.9) | 145.0 (-26.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -3.9 (-2.9) | 143.6 (-24.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -3.9 (-2.9) | 144.8 (-25.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -4.2 (-3.2) | 144.4 (-25.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | FAMU 76 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 3, 2026 | ALST 79 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALST 67 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FAMU 73 – 65 ALST |
| Feb 6, 2024 | ALST 62 – 53 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#294) | -10.5 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#291) | -0.97 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#316) | -1.34 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#263) | 0.470 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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