Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FAMU +110 ALST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAMU +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -0.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.3 (+14.3) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.3 (+14.3) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.6 (+13.6) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.1 (+13.1) | 140.1 (-1.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | ALST 79 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ALST 60 – 59 FAMU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | ALST 67 – 66 FAMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FAMU 73 – 65 ALST |
| Feb 6, 2024 | ALST 62 – 53 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#343) | -10.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#315) | -1.75 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#311) | -2.14 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#327) | 0.420 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAMU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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