Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +850 SAM -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +35 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -10.9 (-24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -12.9 (-22.1) | 144.3 (+12.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -11.0 (-24.0) | 144.0 (+13.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -10.9 (-24.1) | 146.1 (+10.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -12.2 (-22.8) | 147.2 (+9.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#350) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#357) | 0.32 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#357) | 0.39 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#349) | 0.524 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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