Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -188 VILL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -8.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -7.7 (+5.3) | 142.1 (+14.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -8.0 (+5.0) | 140.4 (+16.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -7.5 (+5.5) | 142.0 (+15.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.9 (+6.1) | 143.0 (+14.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#31) | 7.1 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#30) | 0.87 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#22) | 1.29 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#49) | 0.527 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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