Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU +400 TOL -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +5 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -7.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.3 (+3.3) | 160.8 (+16.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -8.4 (+3.4) | 159.5 (+17.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.0 (+3.0) | 160.7 (+16.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.3 (+3.3) | 161.3 (+15.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#277) | 5.1 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#293) | 1.05 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#282) | 1.14 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#303) | 0.556 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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