Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -138 USI +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -3.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.0 (+3.0) | 157.9 (+7.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -1.4 (+3.6) | 155.7 (+9.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.6 (+2.4) | 157.3 (+7.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -2.7 (+2.3) | 158.4 (+6.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SEMO 90 – 65 USI |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SEMO 84 – 76 USI |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SEMO 79 – 74 USI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 66 USI |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SEMO 70 – 66 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#259) | -5.2 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#257) | -0.87 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#266) | -1.16 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#223) | 0.465 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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