Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -2000 HC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -17.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -15.7 (+7.3) | 147.1 (+21.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -16.7 (+6.3) | 147.0 (+22.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -15.3 (+7.7) | 147.5 (+21.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -14.6 (+8.4) | 147.1 (+21.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | COLG 74 – 70 HC |
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | COLG 87 – 65 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 11-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#113) | -10.0 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#137) | -1.74 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#112) | -2.09 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#109) | 0.430 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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